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T.J. Breshears | Off the Block contributor
[Editor’s note: T.J. Breshears is a contributor to Off the Block and created the VBelo Rating Model for college men’s volleyball. This is the only elo model in college men’s volleyball and used to make projections based on data.]
After a big weekend of marquee matches, two facts are abundantly clear. First, it is good to have volleyball back in full swing. And second, everyone likes to play on their home court.
After three weeks of matches, the trend is clear – home teams win.
Through the first 107 matches of the season there have been 100 matches played on non-neutral courts and home teams have won 80 percent of the time.
If this number seems high, that is because it is. In the 2020 and 2021 seasons, the overall home-court winning percentage was 60.4 and 58.5.
The first factor for this high home win percentage is strength of schedule. More well-established teams are more willing to host up-and-coming teams early in the season. With 11 new programs this year, there are plenty of opportunities for historically strong programs to host new schools.
The second factor is teams play better at home.
According to the VBelo Rating Model, without any adjustments for home court, the home team was favored to win in 66 percent of matches this year. So far, the home team has outperformed that projection by about 14 percent.
After home-court advantage is added into the VBelo model, the home team was favored in 89 percent of matches this year, which is significantly closer to the actual outcomes. (This is exactly why VBelo gives a home-court advantage when calculating win probabilities.)
For some historical perspective, in 2020 (the last season there was significant cross-conference play), through the first 100 non-neutral site matches, home teams won only 52 percent of matches.
The home team winning percentage for 2022 is likely unsustainable.
As the season progresses it will be interesting to see how this trend adapts to conference play. The competition will likely be steeper for many teams and the distance between schools will also decrease.
This likely means that the home-court advantage will regress towards the mean of around 60 percent, but surely will not go away. Regardless, the numbers suggest that home-court advantage is real.